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哈佛经济学教授Robert Barro:深度衰亡也许率发生,经济紧缩水平取决于衰亡不息的时间
来源:未知发布时间:2020-05-06 12:33

  一年一度的巴菲特股东大会即将召开。

  每年五月的第一个星期六(走情002291)数万投资人都会怀朝圣的情感,前去位于美国奥马哈的伯克希尔哈撒韦总部。

  受疫情影响,今年的股东大会将不批准股东亲自出席,改为全程现场直播。

  此前,金融界不息三年前去现场为中国投资者带回一手资讯与精彩不都雅点,并在海外举走中美投资人峰会,本次巴菲特股东大会吾们亦不会缺席。

  4月30日19点,“战疫.异日—金融界之夜暨2020中美投资人云峰会”将按期上线,金融界邀请海内外行家共聚一堂,搭建中美投资疏导桥梁,聚焦后疫情时代全球经济、社会的重大变革与机遇。

  在“战疫.异日—金融界之夜暨2020中美投资人云峰会”上,哈佛大学经济学教授Robert Barro发外面点。他指出笑不都雅情况下,病毒迅速得到限制后,经济也许率会展现V型苏醒,经济收缩将仅有全年GDP的10%-15%。同时,他认为货币政策不会发挥主要作用,财政政策能够通偏差业保险、健康险来深化基本的社会坦然。

  金融界:您认为新冠疫情会如何影响全球经济?

   Robert Barro:深度衰亡犹如在所不免,短期内GDP(根据全年计算)会展现大约20%的消极。题目的关键在于,这会不息众久?当病毒(迅速)得到限制,经济也许率会展现迅速的V型苏醒。那么经济收缩将仅有全年GDP的10%-15%。

  金融界:不少中国经济学家认为这次疫情带来的影响能够与大衰亡及2008年次贷危机相挑并论,您是怎么望待这个题目的?有何异同?

   Robert Barro:流感大通走(更广为人知的一个名字是西班牙流感)犹如是,在最糟糕的情况下,推想传染性病毒物化亡率最益的历史标杆。根据48个国家(约占那时全球人口的92%)的数据,1918-1920年全球物化亡率约为2.1%。倘若根据如许的物化亡率,这次疫情会有1.5亿人物化亡。

  为了防止病毒进一步扩散,经济运动的停摆会抢救更众人,代价则是亏损更众的GDP。1918-1920年,典型情况是GDP紧缩约为6%,但如许的紧缩不息了几年,总地来望,亏损信为全年GDP的12%。这也是遏制社会运动,如:关闭私塾、不准群体性荟萃、阻隔的效果。但是那时的干预的水祥和时长都远矮于现在。

  根据数据,1918-1920年的流感大通走物化亡率高的国家众为最拮据的国家,如:撒哈拉以南的非洲、印度、危地马拉和印度尼西亚。这也许是由于欠发达的公共卫生编制经济会易发生更普及地传播。另外,一个很相通的情况能够行使于今天的情形,1918-1920年中国预估的流感物化亡率是1.4%,大约为48个国家的平均值。

  金融界:对于全球当局和投资者有何提出?在复产复工方面,货币政策、财政政策有何提出?

   Robert Barro:吾认为货币政策不会发挥主要作用,它们只能保证金融体系的平常运营。美联储和其他中间银走在现在的背景下做得很益。

  财政政策的主要职能是议决扩展项现在如:赋闲保险、健康险,来深化基本的社会坦然网络。另外一件很主要的事情是,当局也要尽力保证企业平常运转,同时保障他们的员工。

  英文原文:

   JRJ:How would Coronavirus affect the global economy?

   Robert Barro:A strong recession seems certain—with a short-term fall in GDP by perhaps20%(on an annual basis).The critical factor is how long this lasts.A sharp V-shaped recovery is plausible once the virus is contained.In that case,the full contraction may be only10-15%of a full year’s GDP.

   JRJ:Some Chinese experts are comparing this crisis to the Great Depression and subprime mortgage crisis in2008.What are the similarities and differences?

   Robert Barro:The Great Influenza Pandemic(popularly known as the Spanish Flu)seems like the best historical guideline for a worst-case scenario aPPlicable to a contagious virus with a substantial death rate.The overall world death rate1918-20was2.1%,based on48countries with data(constituting92%of world population at the time).That would be a terrible outcome today in terms of deaths,over150million people.

   The sharp response of shutting down much of the economy and,thereby,lessening disease spread,should produce a better health outcome though possibly at the cost of more lost GDP.In1918-20,the typical contraction of GDP was around6%,though sustained for a couple years,so corresponding to a loss of about12%of a year’s GDP.There was also a substantial amount of curbing of social interactions—particularly school closings,bans on public gatherings,and isolation/quarantine.But these interventions were much weaker and more short-lived than those being pursued currently.

   In1918-20,the high death rates were concentrated among the poorest countries—sub-Saharan Africa,India,Guatemala,and Indonesia among the countries with data.Probably this is because of poorly developed systems of public health and worse economic development more broadly.A similar pattern is likely to apply today.China’s estimated flu death rate1918-20was1.4%,about average across the48countries with data.

   JRJ:Any advices for the governments and the worldwide investors?What monetary or fiscal policy do you think is suitable for resumption?

   Robert Barro:I do not think that monetary policy can play a major role,except to ensure that the financial system keeps operating smoothly.The Federal Reserve and other central banks seem to be performing well in this context.

   I think the major role for fiscal policy is to strengthen the basic social safety net,by expanding programs like unemployment insurance and healthcare.It is also important for governments to try to ensure that companies do not go out of business and maintain links with their employees.

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